Betting based on expected team selection

Injury and suspension based football betting systems

But a football team is no more than the eleven men sent out on the pitch on a Saturday afternoon.

Team composition plays a large part in the performance of each team, but this is rarely fully taken into account by the market because the market as a whole tends to be driven by simpler overall statistics - things like the League Table or recent away form etc.

This provides an opportunity to build a profitable value betting system based around likely team line-ups.

If a key player is injured or suspended (or conversely returning from injury or suspension) this may make a big difference to his team's performance.

Betting information is readily available

But most of the market will not take it fully into account and this may create the opportunity for a value bet.

An example of this came at the start of the 2012-13 season when Arsenal sold Robin Van Persie to Manchester United. RVP had scored most of Arsenal's goals the previous season. The result was not that hard to predict - Arsenal failed to find the net in their next two games before bouncing back with a good win at Liverpool and a hatful of goals against Southampton. The previous season they had failed to score only 5 times in 38 Premiership matches.

Watch out for players returning after a long injury lay off though - especially forwards. Clearly it's asking a lot of them to return to their former glories straight away. Returns from suspension provide the value based football bettor much better value as the star player is fit, rested and eager to get on with the game.